Por Ing. Carlos Álvarez Flores
Again, the United States has a president who obeys oil interests. Equal or worse than George HW Bush, (president 41) and George W. Bush (president 43), Mr. Donald John Trump, born in the neighborhood of Queens in New York, on June 14, 1946. He graduated from the career of economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in 1968. Real estate businessman who in 2016, Forbes listed as the No. 324 millionaire in the world and No. 113 in the United States, with a fortune estimated at 4.5 billion dollars. On January 20, 2017, he swore before two Bibles to enforce the Constitution of the United States of America and became President No. 45.
That same day, President Trump signed an executive order in the afternoon that seeks to cancel the Climate Action Plan, which means suspending the actions contemplated in the Clean Power Plan and consequently not meeting the Paris Accords, the goals of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that compromised between 26 and 28 percent of the 2005 baseline (7.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent [CO2eq] per year). This meant reducing approximately two billion tons of CO2eq a year by 2025, which President Barak Obama would have committed in December 2015.
We know that there are already instructions from President Trump, to reduce the budgets of all environmentally related agencies, such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), to as much as 70 percent of your current budget. Similarly, both the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Commission for Border Ecological Cooperation (BECC) could suffer the same fate.
American car and truck companies are being pressured and threatened by President Trump so that they can return to producing in the United States, and one of the arguments to convince them is the deregulation and relaxation of existing environmental regulations. That is, in order to reduce their production costs, they may be exempt from strictly complying with the regulations on air quality imposed by the Clean Air Act. This means bad news for the environment, the health of North Americans and of course bad news for the planet.
We also know that the litigation that existed against some mining projects in the Barak Obama administration will be canceled in order to return again to the enormous mining activity of coal extraction and its use. This new impulse that Donald Trump will give to oil activity can bring us back to 1970 when 9.5 million barrels of oil were produced daily. And the use of coal to produce electricity will be significantly boosted. Without neglecting the use of natural gas. Donald Trump's intentions, as he has repeatedly stated, are to boost the production of shale gas and shale oil. So we are returning to the fossil fuel era in a serious setback that of course runs counter to the Paris Accords. On the contrary, it aims to curb support for green energy.
In this scenario, a few weeks ago, 20 millionaires led by Bill Gates, announced the launch of an investment fund with one billion dollars of capital to invest in new forms of clean and renewable energy. The Microsoft founder will be financially supported by other Silicon Valley philanthropists like John Doerr, Vinod Khosla, and John Arnold. In addition to the money of Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, and that of Richard Branson, creator of Virgin. They all promised big investments through Breakthrough Energy Ventures. Bill Gates proposes to invest in "scientific findings that have the potential to provide cheap, reliable and clean energy to the world."
Within days of being named President of the United States, Donald Trump has created an uncertain global environment. Specifically in the fight against global warming, we are facing a probable delay that could be eight years. This is very discouraging despite having managed to commit more than 194 countries of the world in the Paris Agreements, so that each one could make their own efforts in reducing their GHG emissions and achieve the goal of not exceeding 2 degrees of global temperature in the next three decades. I think that in the coming months we will see the reaction of the entire international community that will promptly question this new position of delay on the part of the Americans in fulfilling their commitments to the Paris Agreements towards the 2025.
Just as it happened in the failed Kyoto Protocol, when China decided not to sign its ratification when the Americans declined to meet the timid goals of reducing 5.2 percent of their emissions from the 1990 baseline. And with valid arguments when pointing out that They have barely 25 years of sustained economic development making a huge effort to lift 30 million Chinese a year out of poverty. And because Americans and Europe have been emitting billions of tons of GHG annually for more than 140 years since the industrial revolution, they would not ratify their commitment to Kyoto either. Then India also refrained from ratifying it, for the same reasons. We know that the three giants, China, the US, and India, emit almost 50 percent of global GHG emissions. And therefore, once the three abandoned the Kyoto Protocol, it was practically dead in 2012.
A pesar del fracaso de Kioto, después de tres años de intensos cabildeos, llegamos a París en diciembre de 2015 para lograr lo impensable: un acuerdo de 194 naciones del mundo comprometiéndose a reducir sus emisiones de GEI para salvar el planeta.
It is difficult to predict today what will happen to the Paris Accords. But most likely, we will once again witness this same unfortunate decision (now) of Donald Trump, of the abandonment of the United States of America in the face of the obligations of the Paris Agreements and the consequent refusal of China and India to maintain their commitments. Which leads us to conclude that once this happens in the course of 2017 or 2018, the efforts that could be made by both Europe (which emits approximately 10 percent of global GHG emissions) along with the other countries of the world do not They will be enough to stop the inertia that we have experienced in the last 140 years, where we have generated a permanent growth in GHG emissions and the consequent global warming. We have the global temperature records for the last 30 years, which is the necessary and appropriate term to accurately define the global climate. We can affirm that the last 16 years have been the hottest in modern times.
According to the scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we know that if we exceed those 2 degrees of global temperature in the next 30 or 40 years, we will enter a more aggressive and dangerous dynamics for humanity, where apparently, we will no longer be able to reverse nor stop the serious effects and consequences that will substantially harm the great ecosystem. Especially to the more than two billion inhabitants of the planet who live in the coastal areas of the five continents. The theory that the water level of the oceans will rise will simply be a reality. The material cost of moving cities settled on the coasts inland and the enormous destruction of coastal ecosystems will be incalculable and the global economy will surely enter the most difficult stage ever known to modern society. Because it will be a global economic crisis.
This is why I must leave my modest testimony in this opinion piece: I hold US President Donald John Trump responsible for being the cause of the unforgivable and undue delay in the fight against global warming, for obeying his poor scientific knowledge and above all for The obsession to fulfill his campaign promises to generate jobs in the United States, under the fallacy that only by returning to the intensive exploitation of hydrocarbons in all its forms and to industrial production with electrical energy through the burning of fossil fuels, will he succeed.
The reality is different: President Donald John Trump is simply obeying the economic interests of the powerful oil companies, without knowing that he is compromising the viability of the human species into the future, under the pretext of the generation of dozens or, at best, of hundreds of thousands of American jobs. But without taking into account not only the two billion inhabitants of the planet who live on the coasts but the planet itself. At the time.